In 1996 World Cup Cricket Final match at Lahore, Australia played against SL. The leading commentators like Ravi Shastri etc were vehemently favoring batting first because no team yet could win the finals batting second till that time. Arjun Ranatunga won the toss and decided to field first. When Tony Greg asked Arjun about the decision and the history of the finals- Arjuna gave a fantastic reply. He said - I am a bad student of history.
The confident and wise people may sometimes take good look at history or others experiences, but at the end of the day, it is his hunch that should guide him. But needless to say, the more shrewd he is, the better is the hunch.